I’m responding to the invitation to write about the church of 2030 from the perspective of a Baptist Christian in the United States, a culture in which in the early 21st Century the church is being increasingly seen as marginalized. Much about the future is unpredictable, obviously. But we have signs pointing the way that we can consider prayerfully and thoughtfully as we move forward.

Demographic trends indicate that the context in which the North American congregations will be ministering the gospel will be a fresh challenge requiring creativity and adaptive leadership. Some aspects of that future are fairly predictable, such as demographics and ecology. For example, the current world population is about 7 billion. In 2030 we will be growing toward a mid-century figure of 9 billion (some say 10 or 11). The U.S. population of 310 million will be swelling toward 420 million by mid-century. Where will these 9 billion people worldwide, 420 million Americans live? In cities. In huge, overcrowded cities.

In 1900 only 150 million people in the world lived in cities. In 2007, for the first time, the world had more urban people than rural, with more than 3 billion. By 2050, more than 6 billion people, 2 of 3 on the planet will live in huge cities under such crowded conditions we can hardly imagine it. The number of cities with a population of more than a million people has exploded over the past 100 years, from a mere dozen in 1900, to 83 in 1950, to more than 400 today. Eighteen “megacities” now have populations over ten million.

The factors that go with crowding in cities are not mysterious. The issues of crime, disease, quality of life, transportation, food supply, waste management, energy demands and others will grow exponentially. Wherever the church is doing ministry in the world in 2030, it is likely to be doing so in a large, growing, densely populated, urban setting.

Real property will be increasingly scarce and therefore expensive in these cities. Models of church life dependent on large pieces of real estate and massive buildings may no longer be sustainable. It is likely only a matter of time before an increasing secular culture decides that the potential tax revenue available from church property is duly owed to the local and state governments, and churches may no longer get a “free ride.” In the light of the church’s opposition to the recent Supreme Court ruling on same-sex marriage, some voices are already calling for the repeal of federal tax-free status for churches and other non-profit organizations. Simply owning facilities and paying taxes may become too burdensome for many congregations, requiring severe cuts in staff and programs. Additionally, the loss of tax-exempt status could affect donations to these congregations and other organizations. The church will have to learn new ways to use or provide facilities, fund ministries, and teach Christian generosity to its people.

As Francis’ recent encyclical argued so clearly, the immediate future also includes difficult environmental challenges. Adequate clean water worldwide is an increasingly serious issue. With the growth of the cities, it is more so. Food supply systems that depend on cheap petroleum leave large cities vulnerable. Global climate change remains a wild card for coastal cities. With up to seventy-percent of the world crowded into cities, growing up surrounded by asphalt, concrete, and glass, people are increasingly alienated from Creation and from each other. God’s people have the opportunity to lead the way in caring for Creation and especially in addressing the justice issues involved, which Pope Francis elucidated so well.

All North American congregations, whether Catholic or evangelical, will face these issues and others. Because of their common stance on issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion they will be perceived more and more as speaking from the margin. Our legitimacy in the eyes of the world we minister to will need to be grown from a place of love and service, not judgment. Disciples of Jesus Christ will need to be spiritually formed to engage a world whose hostility to more conservative expressions of Christian faith becomes more normative.