In light of demographic projections, the present and the future of the Church appear grim. Secularization is the universal trend in the West, that is, a quantitative decline in regions traditionally Christian (see table below). Countries in the emerging South are moving in a very different direction and their growth leads to hope.

In the next 15 or 20 years, the Church’s center of influence will move, and greater vitality and higher levels of vocations will continue to grow in the emerging South, assuming that economic, political and cultural conditions keep the same; it is there that growth is more needed because suffering is more apparent and the conditions poorer.

In the old Western countries, Christian communities will continue becoming smaller, but hopefully with more self-awareness and distinction. This new trend will have to struggle with efforts to maintain the dated model of Christendom. Clergy aging and decline require solutions but none is in sight. In many cases priests from emerging countries are invited to be guest pastors in order to remedy the absence of local vocations. In the near future things will worsen as it is not only the clergy, but the overall Catholic population that is aging, or at least those who attend Mass and support the Church.

The religious situation of the advanced societies raises the question of church membership. The core of very committed Christian communities will become more visible, and they will reshape the form of Church – indeed they are already doing it! Lay people will have to take more responsibility; this is more evident in reference to women left behind in the traditional ecclesial model. There is also the question of the Church priorities. The services of the Church  will need to be more appropriate to the needs of the times and better describe the Church’s identity and meaning; it is only then that the Church services will continue to be well supplied, in addition to the social and cultural ones.

Two distinct orientations may be expected in future. One can be called "devotional." It is driven towards traditional forms of spirituality, with openness to miracles and the supernatural; this model is still strong among many believers. The second can be called "contemporary." It tries to adapt to the new cultural conditions of technology and science; this model is more tolerant, presenting faith as compatible with contemporary forms of rationality. It may also be less able to engage believers in a committed way. Between the two a great variety of combinations is conceivable.

Different conclusions may be drawn from the data of the table given below, but the quantitative trend is unmistakable.

WEEKLY CHURCH ATTENDANCE IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES